Posted in December 2009

This article by Sir Julian Hunt appeared on The Wall Street’s Opinion Journal on December 22nd 2009

Five years after the deadly wave in the Indian Ocean, our ability to forecast and warn of a dangerous tsunami has increased considerably.

By JULIAN HUNT

It is now estimated by the United Nations that the devastating Indian Ocean Tsunami of Boxing Day 2004 killed around 187,000 people, with approximately 43,000 still missing. The tsunami was the largest in the Indian Ocean for more than 700 years, triggered by the fourth-largest earthquake in the world since 1900.

As well as the terrible human cost, the physical and environmental devastation wrought was truly massive, with the impact disproportionately felt by the poor. In Aceh alone, hundreds of thousands of homes were flattened, around 800 kilometers of coastline was destroyed, and approximately 3,000 hectares of land were washed away, taking roads, ports, bridges and other vital infrastructure with it.

Five years on, there remains much left to learn about tsunamis, but our understanding of their risks and how to reduce them through forecasting, warnings, and better tsunami-resistant construction and design has advanced considerably.

• Warning systems. One reason the Indian Ocean tsunami proved so catastrophic was the fact that warning systems in the region were virtually nonexistent. Since then, there has been progress in most aspects of warnings across the world, and the Indian Ocean itself now has a regional system in place.
The value of warning systems was underlined yet again this month when they were used very successfully after the Dec. 4 Samoa tsunami.

However, other countries around the world have not benefited in this same way. Warning systems tend to be more effective and reliable where natural hazards recur on a regular basis. Tsunamis are an example of an infrequent and variable type of secondary geophysical hazard, and thus warning systems are still not in place in all areas.

The further complication is that, even with a warning system in place, some communities close to epicenters still may not receive the relevant information in time. Indeed, had the current Indian Ocean warning system been in place in 2004, it may not have helped many of those who were earliest to be hit by the tsunami.
This is why 80% of tsunami casualties tend to occur before any official or technically based warning actually arrives, unlike the case of more slowly evolving and propagating hazards such as hurricanes or flood waves, which generally have limited numbers of casualties.

However, for more distant communities (e.g. the Kenyan fishermen community, where the tsunami arrived six hours after its initiation off Sumatra in December 2004), warnings can be communicated effectively. These warnings (which came through community groups, mobile phones and TV in Kenya) save many lives, as was shown most recently in Samoa. Research shows that the key is to distribute data quickly, openly and locally, so that it is available in the right form, at the right place and at the right time to prevent loss of life.

• Forecasting. The tsunami warning systems in the ocean, which are currently coordinated by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, are not integrated between countries. However, there will be discussions about enhanced exchange of the data and forecasts as warning systems become more reliable. This will place a premium upon better forecasting.
Although early indicators of tsunamis have been identified, this has usually been after the event, and these are still not reliable enough to be widely used. Certainly, the standard seismic models did not predict the December 2004 earthquake that caused the tsunami and might not have predicted other tsunami sources such as submarine landslides or volcanic eruptions.

Perhaps the most promising research for enhancing our predictive capability is holistic geophysical forecasting. This makes use of the fact that the sizes of tsunami-related disturbances are so large and so powerful that they disturb the solid earth, the oceans and the atmosphere. These disturbances do not just lead to mechanical forces and release of heat, as in storms, but they also affect electrical, magnetic and molecular processes, especially higher up in the atmosphere.

Modern instruments have become so sensitive that they can measure magnetic fields one millionth of the strength of the earth’s magnetic field, so that tremors in the lithosphere can be detected long before large earthquakes and tsunamis actually occur. Research at the Geoelectromagentic Research Center in Moscow also confirms that the motions in tsunami waves, once initiated, can be detected over many hundreds of kilometers from distant measurements of weak, slowly changing magnetic fields.

• Resilient infrastructure. Even with better prediction and warnings, the Indian Ocean tsunami underlined the need for more resilient infrastructure and community planning. Since 2004, for instance, many people near coastlines in the region sleep at higher elevations to avoid surprise tsunamis at night.
Research is now leading to more ambitious solutions for building resilient infrastructures. At several research institutes, including

Delft University of Technology, University College London, the University of Arizona, and HS Wallingford, work is under way to explain why, in December 2004 when the waves approached beaches, the sea retreated and then roared up the beach in a huge surge that drowned thousands of people and destroyed many buildings.

With specially constructed laboratory wave-makers, these events have been reproduced; but mathematical models and computations are now needed to turn the experiments into reliable estimates for engineers and for community planners to build tsunami proof-structures and plan more resilient communities. With global warming, these calculations also take account of the increasing danger as the sea level rises—which is happening three times faster in tropical seas where tsunami risk is greatest.

Lord Hunt is a visiting professor at Delft University of Technology and former director-general of the U.K. Meteorological Office.

This article was posted on Reuters The Great Debate by Julian Hunt on December 22nd 2009

– Julian Hunt is visiting professor at Delft University of Technology and formerly director general of the UK meteorological office. Charles Kennel is distinguished professor of atmospheric science, emeritus and senior advisor to the sustainability solutions institute, UCSD. The opinions expressed are their own. –

The non-legally binding “deal” agreed at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen among the U.S., China, Brazil, South Africa and India, has brought to a conclusion what has proved an extraordinarily complex set of negotiations.

The outcome has been criticised on numerous grounds and, in U.S. President Barack Obama’s own words, “We have much further to go”.

In effect, the agreement may ultimately amount to no more than a long-term climate change dialogue between Washington and Beijing.  While global action to tackle emissions of carbon dioxide must remain a priority, the fact remains that we may be heading towards a future in which no long-term, comprehensive successor to the Kyoto regime is politically possible.

One of the chief flaws in the Copenhagen negotiations was the fact that the overly-ambitious political deals being discussed were not realistic, nor framed to inspire people to act and collaborate with each other across the world on both a local and regional level.  Going forwards, national governments will need to be more honest about future likely emissions and also of future temperature changes.  In this crucial debate, scientists must be free to state their estimates without political bias.

In the absence of a new global deal, it is now crucial that the centre of gravity of decision-making on how we respond to climate change moves towards the sub-national level.  This may also have the effect of re-energising future global climate change talks as environment diplomacy could certainly be furthered by policies decided at the local and regional level.

The need for such a paradigm shift from a “top-down” to a “bottom-up” approach is becoming clearer by the day.

Over the last decade, records of weather and climate trends have revealed larger and more unusual regional and local variations — some unprecedented since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago.  Among such warning signs are the disappearing ice fields around the poles and on all mountain ranges, more frequent droughts in Africa and now in wet regions (such as the 2006 drought in Assam India, previously one of the wettest places in the world), floods in dry regions (as recently, the worst floods in 50 years in northwest India), and ice storms in sub-tropical China in 2008 (for the first time in 150 years).

Such extreme events threaten sustainable development around the world, natural environments are destroyed irreversibly, and economic growth is slowed.

One of the most compelling advocates this month at Copenhagen for sub-national solutions for tackling climate change was California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger.  As the state of California, and legislators in Globe and city governments are putting into practice, adaptation needs to build on existing knowledge and infrastructures in local settings.

Forming loose collaborative networks will enable regional facilitation centres, their experts and decision makers to learn from one another and also draw upon the resources of existing national and international databases and programmes, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) and the growing number of consortia linking major cities, local governments, and the private sector.

Experience shows that this ‘bottom-up’ approach works very effectively as it is only generally when sub-national areas learn how they will be specifically affected by climate change that widespread, grassroots political action can be aroused.

Although regional variations in climate change are approximately predicted by IPCC global climate models, more local measurements and studies are needed for sub-national governments, industry and agriculture to better understand their local climatic situation and develop reliable and effective strategies to deal with all the ways that climate change affects their activities and well being.

Hence, the increasing numbers of regional monitoring centres which, by communicating and interpreting these predictions and uncertainties, are contributing towards local adaptation plans:

•    In China, where provinces require targets for power station construction, regional environmental and climate change centres are now well developed.
•    In the United States, a recent report has highlighted the value of non-official centres, such as a severe storm centre in Oklahoma, which gives independent advice to communities and businesses, while relying on government programmes for much of the data.
•    In Brazil, a regional data centre is providing data and predictions about agriculture and deforestation and informs legislation about policy options.

What this activity points to is the need for a global network of such centres to support national climate initiatives, and to facilitate international funding and technical cooperation in delivering the right information to the right place, at the right time.

Local actions can only be effective if measurements of climate and environment are made regularly and are publicised as well as information about targets, and projections of emissions.  Experience shows that full exposure is needed about what is happening, what is planned, and how every individual can be involved (as the Danes show by their community investment in wind power).

Historically, it is cities that have helped lead the vanguard towards tackling major environmental challenges.

It is therefore unsurprising that it is individual cities that are seeking to adopt some of the most innovative ways of adapting to worsening climate hazards, including showing how to integrate these measures with considerable savings in costs — such as putting windmills on dykes as in Rotterdam.

For instance, a recent “civic exchange” meeting in Hong Kong considered solutions for how major cities in China will strive to reach targets for reductions in emissions as stringent as those in developed countries.  This is a very ambitious objective, since in China the carbon emission per person per year is 6 tons, compared with 10 tons in the EU, and 25 tons in the United States.

Taken overall, the cumulative effect of such sub-national actions may well determine the speed and effectiveness of global responses to climate change.  The message is clear.  ‘Localisation of action and data’ must be the post-Copenhagen priority if we are to tackle the global warming menace.

This article By BEN WRIGHT appeared in the Wall Street Journal on December 7th 2009

Scientists in Delft Believe Clouds Hold the Key to Unlocking Predictions About Climate Change

For Prof. Harmen Jonker, the best days are overcast. When the skies are clear and the suns shines, he retreats to his laboratory at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands to make his own clouds. Prof. Jonker and his colleagues, Professors Herman Russchenberg and Pier Siebesma, believe that clouds hold the key to unlocking predictions about climate change.

Read the full article.

This article by Julian Hunt appeared on Reuters The Great Debate on December 5th, 2009

Julian Hunt- Julian Hunt is visiting professor at Delft University of Technology and formerly director general of the UK Meteorological Office; Elsie Owusu is with Just Ghana, based in Ghana and UK; Arun Shrestha is climate change specialist at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development in Nepal; Charles Kennel is distinguished professor emeritus, University of California in San Diego. The opinions expressed are their own. –

Nobel Laureates, industries and political leaders are emphasising the seriousness of global warming and climate change and calling for global action to reduce the accelerating trends of greenhouse gas emissions.  But it is equally vital for regions to initiate their own policies to deal with the growing impacts of climate change on their environments and their communities.

Since 1997, the trends of weather and climate records reveal larger and more unusual variations in regions around the world, some unprecedented since the end of the last ice age 10,000 years ago.  Among such warning signs are the disappearing ice fields around the poles and on all mountain ranges, more frequent droughts in Africa and now in wet regions (such as northeast India in 2006), floods in dry regions (as recently, in northwest India), and ice storms in sub-tropical China in 2008 (for the first time in 150 years).

Such extreme events threaten sustainable development around the world, natural environments are destroyed irreversibly, and economic growth is slowed.

Our proposition is that adaptation to climate change needs to build on existing knowledge and infrastructures in each region’s own setting. Forming loose collaborative networks will enable regional facilitation centres, their experts and decision makers to learn from one another and draw upon the resources of existing national and international databases and also programmes, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the growing number of consortia linking major cities, local governments, and the private sector.

In May 2009, at the University of California, San Diego, experts from Asian regional centres based in India, Nepal and China compared their observed trends, long-range predictions and policies for regional climate and water resources with those of California.  The California Climate Action Team predicts that global warming will cause the loss of the state’s remaining glaciers and most of its snow pack by 2100, which will seriously affect the State’s approach to water management.  But some coastal zones are cooling as marine air is drawn into a warming Central Valley.  Politics for water, agriculture, and ecosystems are affected zone-by-zone.

The Himalayas and the Tibetan plateau are also losing ice and snow, caused by the direct effects of global warming, and also the indirect effects of aerosols from industry, traditional cooking, more intensive agriculture, and wind-blown natural dust.  Water supplies for a billion people are threatened. Regional environmental polices for the indirect effects should benefit both the local climate and health as well as agriculture.  But there may be also global benefit as aerosols from Asia are carried by winds around the globe and impact the snow-pack of California’s Sierra Nevada.

In the West African coastal zone the observed rise in temperature and decrease in rainfall is affecting agriculture and the environment of the growing urban areas.  Just as in California, these trends differ significantly from those further inland – another example of the need for local data related to local policies.  But in the Sahel and in India regional actions are benefiting the local climate and environment through extensive tree planting.

The global computer model results assembled by the IPCC provide broad guidance about temperature change at regional levels.  But their predictions about future rain and snow are not reliable enough for planning at the regional scale. Thus improved projections of past and future trends are needed on a region-by-region basis. More detailed simulations, statistics of long-term cycles, and a close look at local trends are required.  Sizeable margins for error are therefore necessary in planning for water management and agriculture. Regional centres, by communicating and interpreting these predictions and uncertainties can contribute to local adaptation policies.

Collaborative studies this year between Ghana, Uganda and UK suggest that non profit or charitable organisations might be able to facilitate with minimal cost the sharing of expertise and the exchange of data, for example in private agriculture, tourism and conservation projects.  Anthropologists studying climate change have pointed out that observations of farmers and villagers are also useful for monitoring and can provide a unique perspective of climate change over years and decades.

Since 1997 the availability of rainfall and environmental data is improving in many countries, through the urgings of the World Meteorological Organisation.  But restrictions about the international exchange of observational data and warnings about natural hazards are partly being overcome by regional collaboration, for example, in improved international warnings along the Brahmaputra river in India and Bangladesh.

In the U.S., a recent report points out the value of non-official centres, such as a severe storm centre in Oklahoma, which gives independent advice to communities and businesses, while relying on government programmes for much of the data.
In Brazil, a regional data centre is providing current data and predictions about agriculture and deforestation and informs legislation about policy options.  In China, where provinces require targets for power station construction, regional environmental and climate change centres are well developed.

A network of regional centres is needed to support national and sub-regional climate initiatives and to facilitate international funding and technical cooperation. The cumulative effect of regional action may well determine the speed and effectiveness of global responses to climate change.